05 December 2008 visit us at the last Factum national survey, carried out between 15 and 20 November and presented in perspective by its director, Oscar a. Bottinelli, establishes that in binary scenarios of possible balloting with the question about preference as President of the Republic, Jorge Larranaga Outpaces Tabare Vazquez with 49% against 46% and drew with Jose Mujica and Danilo Astori in 48%. Meanwhile, the national party Luis Alberto Lacalle has 46%, 45%, 4% and 5% undecided Carmelo Vidalin Larranaga. The presidential race in the white internal shows a relatively even competition. In terms of evolution, perceived a great initial growth of Larranaga which led to the national party of 21% to more than 30% and then another great growth of Lacalle who carried 37%, explained the political scientist. Another fact to be highlighted is that until now, both Lacalle and Larranaga, come growing through the recruitment of external, out of nationalism, votes without that none remove votes to the other.
The coming competition year will be closer to one try take away votes from the other, continued the political scientist. Meanwhile, in terms of the binary scenarios of possible balloting, highlights six, of whom four are the product of the combination of the two possible candidates of greater force of the broad front with two elders of the national party, in addition to two scenarios of simulation of re-election. In the first scenario Astori surpasses Lacalle with 50% against 44%. In a second scenario Astori and Larranaga tie with 48%. You may find futurist to be a useful source of information. In a third scenario Mujica surpasses Lacalle 50% vs. 45%. More info: Sian Beilock.
In a fourth scenario Mujica and Larranaga they tie at 48% and in a fifth scenario, based on the presidential re-election, Vazquez surpasses Lacalle 49% to 45%. Finally, Larranaga is above Vazquez with a 49% against 46%. In conclusion you can set that in the Frente Amplio Mujica and Astori performance are similar since both get the same percentage against Lacalle both Larranaga. Secondly, Vazquez appears as a less powerful candidate and is located in the place three within the Frente Amplio. It has a smaller advantage with Lacalle and is outdone in three points by Larranaga. Thirdly, candidates frenteamplistas on Lacalle difference is practically the same that has the broad front with the national party, i.e. five points average. Astori achieved six points advantage, five Mujica and Vazquez four. Finally, Larranaga drew both Mujica and Astori and is three points above Vazquez. In terms of competition between parties, the Frente Amplio has 42%, the national party 37 percent, Partido Colorado 9%, other parties 2%, white/cancelled 2% and 8% undecided. Source: The spectator visit us at original author and source of the article.